Changes in cancer incidence and deaths expected by 2040 – Consumer Health News

THURSDAY, April 8, 2021 (HealthDay News) – Cancer incidence and mortality are expected to change by 2040, with breast cancer remaining the most common cancer followed by melanoma and then lung cancer, according to a study published online 7. April u JAMA network open.

Lola Rahib, Ph.D., of Cancer Commons of Mountain View, California, and colleagues used population growth projections and current cancer incidence and mortality rates to calculate changes in incidences and deaths by 2040.

The researchers estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast cancer, melanoma and lung cancer (364,000; 219,000 and 208,000 cases, respectively), followed by colon cancer as the fourth in a row (147,000 cases) and prostate cancer as the 14th most common ( 66,000 cases). Lung cancer is expected to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in 2040, followed by pancreatic cancer (63,000 and 46,000 deaths), while liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer is expected to surpass colorectal cancer. deaths, respectively). Breast cancer was expected to be reduced to the fifth most common cause of death (30,000 deaths).

“The estimated absolute number of cancer diagnoses and deaths will be important to indicate the need for professionals trained to identify and care for people with the disease, the burden on insurance companies and government programs, and the allocation of research funding for future prevention and treatment.” , the authors write.

Abstract / full text