7h | Alan Burkitt-Gray
A decade will pass when satellites become vital for the development of high-speed broadband, according to numerous forecasters.
According to Euroconsult, the world will see an average of 1,250 satellites launched each year between now and 2029. That’s five times the average rate for the 2010-19 decade.
Maxime Puteaux, chief consultant at Euroconsult, says: “We are looking at half of the market concentrated around a handful of mega constellations. In addition, some are vertically integrated meaning that their procurement will not be done on the basis of an open tender. “
We already had the first year with the launch of more than 1,000 satellites, of which, says Euroconsult – with 70% of them are SpaceX’s Starlink satellites (pictured). “This symbolic threshold will become the new standard for the next ten years with significant annual variations triggered mainly by the replacement of commercial constellations,” says Euroconsult.
Growth is in low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. There were only 18 geostationary (GEO) satellites launched in 2020. The replacement of geostationary satellites “is also caused by fleet rationalization approaches”, as well as the fact that some last longer than expected.
But there is also an expansion of the satellite market, with new launch devices dedicated to small satellites, “which are expected to perform the first flights in 2021.”
Rival company NSR says the satellite industry has shrunk by 2.7%.
His Financial analysis of the satellite industry The report says the industry is “at the peak of a major transformation”.
The report adds, “Although integrated operators and some data segments continue to record growth, video continues to struggle, shrinking the global satcom industry by 2.7% in 2019.”
There is, says the NSR, “a new period of growth from 2021 to 22. With LEO capacities from SpaceX, OneWeb 2021-22. Both Amazon and Telesata, launched in 2024, the satcom industry believes it is necessary to consolidate in order to control its closed markets and offer greater economic value. “